Where Britain is heading
Britain 2030
Where the official forecasts say Britain is heading. These are the Office for Budget Responsibility's own projections, not our predictions, and forecasts change as the economy does. Each figure shows its source and the forecast it comes from.
The official forecast for 2030
The economy growing year on year
1.5%
Forecast for 2030
The size of the economy, in real terms
£3.03 trillion
Forecast for 2030
Inflation (the cost of living)
2.1%
Forecast for 2030
People out of work
4.1%
Forecast for 2030
Source: Office for Budget Responsibility, Economic and fiscal outlook, March 2026. Official forecast. Forecasts are revised at each fiscal event.
The longer view, and the risks
What the independent watchdogs say about where the trends lead, quoted and linked.
Office for Budget Responsibility
Published Jul 2025
On unchanged policy the UK's public finances are on an unsustainable long-term path, with debt projected to climb above 270 per cent of GDP by the early 2070s as an ageing population lifts health, care and state-pension costs.
Debt above 270% of GDP by the early 2070s on current policy
Source: OBR, Fiscal risks and sustainability, July 2025. Read the report.
Office for Budget Responsibility
Published Oct 2024
The share of working-age people on an incapacity benefit reached 7.0 per cent in 2023-24 and is forecast to climb to an all-time high of 7.9 per cent by 2028-29. Incapacity benefits cost £24.9 billion and working-age disability benefits £19.0 billion in 2023-24.
Incapacity-benefit prevalence forecast to hit a record 7.9% of working-age adults by 2028-29
Source: OBR, Welfare trends report, October 2024. Read the report.
Office for National Statistics
Published Apr 2018
UK productivity rose steadily before the 2008 recession, then slumped and has barely recovered. The ONS calculated that, had the pre-2008 trend continued, productivity would have been 20 per cent higher than it actually was by the end of 2017.
About 20% higher by the end of 2017 had the pre-2008 trend held
Source: ONS, The 2008 recession 10 years on, April 2018. Read the report.
Where we came from
The forecast only makes sense against the record. See the full economic history and the accountability record.